Hung parliament causes plunge in business confidence, but little appetite for another election

The first poll of business leaders since Thursday’s General Election reveals a dramatic drop in business confidence and huge concern over political uncertainty, and its impact on the UK economy. Company directors see no clear way to quickly resolve the political situation, feeling that a further election this year would have a negative impact on the UK economy.

The nearly 700 members of the Institute of Directors who took the survey are looking for any political certainty that can be found and are keen to see quick agreement with the European Union on transitional arrangements surrounding the UK’s withdrawal, and clarity on the status of EU workers in the United Kingdom.

The overall priority for the new Government, according to IoD members who have taken the survey since noon on Friday, must be reaching a new trade deal with the European Union. On the domestic front, work to deliver a higher skilled workforce and better quality infrastructure is considered vitally important.

A summary of the key findings and the full results of the survey can be found below.

Stephen Martin, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

“It is hard to overstate what a dramatic impact the current political uncertainty is having on business leaders, and the consequences could – if not addressed immediately – be disastrous for the UK economy. The needs of business and discussion of the economy were largely absent from the campaign, but this crash in confidence shows how urgently that must change in the new Government.

“It was disheartening that the only reference the Prime Minister made to prosperity in her Downing Street statement was to emphasise the need to share it, rather than create it in the first place. With global headwinds and political uncertainty at the front of business leaders’ minds, it would be wise for this administration to re-emphasise its commitment to a pro-business environment here at home.

“Business leaders will be acutely aware that Parliaments without majorities are more prone to politicking and point-scoring than most. If we do indeed see a minority Government, both sides of the aisle must swallow their pride and work on a cross-party basis on the most important issues. The last thing business leaders need is a Parliament in paralysis, and the consequences for British businesses and for the UK as an investment destination would be severe.

“Saying this, there is also little appetite for a further election this year, and indeed business leaders are keener to see the new Government get to work in Brussels and on the domestic front. Ensuring negotiations start well, and delivering higher quality skills and infrastructure across the country, must be the priority.”

The key findings of the survey:

• 65% of IoD members believe uncertainty over the make-up of the Government is ‘a significant concern’ for the UK economy, with a further 27% describing it as a ‘slight concern’ – a total of 92% therefore believing it to be a concern
• There has been a negative swing of 34 points in confidence in the UK economy from our last survey in May. While 20% are optimistic about the UK economy over the next 12 months, some 57% are now either quite or very pessimistic – a -37 ‘net confidence’ score. This compares with May, in which 34% registered their optimism, and only 37% reported pessimism – just -3
• A majority (59%) believe a further election later this year would be somewhat or very unwelcome. Only 23% felt a further election would be welcome

On the policy front:

• Asked to choose three areas of Brexit negotiations which should be prioritised by the new Government, more than half – 58% - chose agreement on rights and entitlements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. In joint-second, negotiating an early agreement on transitional arrangements and securing ‘zero for zero’ tariffs were both chosen by 38% of business leaders
• Asked specifically about transitional arrangements, some 86% of business leaders felt striking a deal on that issue was ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ important
• Asked to prioritise three policy areas for the new Government, 72% chose ‘reaching a new trade agreement with the EU.’ Half – 49% - chose education, skills and training, and a further 35% chose modernising infrastructure

Thinking of their own organisations rather than the economy at large:

• More than three quarters, 76%, believe political uncertainty is either a significant or a slight concern for their organisation;

Full results 

Survey conducted 9^th-11^th June, 686 responses

Now that the election campaign is over, we would like to get your views on the new Government’s plan for its term of office.Do you feel that uncertainty over the immediate short-term make-up of the Government is a concern for your primary organisation and for the economy as a whole?

Thinking of your primary organisation, do you believe a potential further election later in the year would be:

Following the election result, how important do you believe it is that the UK and the European Union strike a deal on transitional arrangements surrounding our departure from the EU?

Thinking of your primary organisation, which of the following areas should the new Government prioritise in Brexit negotiations?

How optimistic are you about both the wider UK economy and also your (primary) organisation over the next 12 months?

Which of the following factors, if any, are having a negative impact on your primary organisation?

Thinking of your primary organisation, which of the following domestic policy areas should be immediate priorities for the new Government?