IoD press release Business confidence falls to new record low
The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index, which measures business leader optimism in prospects for the UK economy, fell to -74 in September 2025 from -61 August.
This exceeds the recent record low of -72 in July 2025 and marks the lowest reading of the Index since its introduction in July 2016.
Business leader confidence in their own organisations also fell to -7 in September 2025, from +1 in August. This matches the level recorded in November 2024 (-7).
This negative trend is also reflected in the underlying indicators:
- Cost expectations rose to +89 in September 2025, from +85 in August. This is the highest reading of the indicator since its introduction in November 2017 and exceeds the previous series high recorded in February 2025 (+87).
- Headcount expectations fell to -13, from -4.
- Investment intentions fell to -20, from -8.
- Revenue expectations fell to 0, from +12.
- Wage expectations jumped to +64, from +42.
- Export expectations rose to +6, from +5.
On the biggest factors driving businesses’ outlook for costs over the year ahead (last asked in March 2025), the top three remain unchanged in ranking. The most significant is labour costs, selected by 83% (up from 77% in March 2025), followed by supply chain inflation (34%, from 36%) and energy costs (32%, from 34%).
Anna Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said:
“Business confidence has plumbed new depths in September, following a fleeting improvement at the tag-end of summer. Conditions worsened across the board, with cost expectations hitting a record high, driven notably by employment costs. Investment expectations declined again, although remained somewhat above the most recent low in November 2024. Meanwhile headcount expectations continue to seesaw as the effects of the April rises in employment taxes and the living wage, alongside future concerns over employment regulations, continue to reverberate across companies.
“Business leaders are calling for a reduction in government-generated costs – whether through a lower tax burden or lighter regulation. But crucially they are seeking a more coherent and credible plan for growth. Some positive steps are in place – including additional public sector investment and long-term policy plans. But persistent fears that taxes on business and assets will rise are stifling confidence, holding back investment, and threatening growth and living standards. The Chancellor’s conference speech rightly reiterated the role that fiscal credibility has in providing the platform for growth. But we urgently need a genuinely growth-focussed Budget that has business at its heart, that delivers genuine policy coherence and stability and reduces regulatory and tax burdens on business.”
The IoD Directors’ Economic Confidence Index measures the net % positive answers from members of the Institute of Directors to the question ‘How optimistic are you about the wider UK economy over the next 12 months?’ on a five-point scale from ‘very optimistic’ to ‘very pessimistic’.
Full Results
588 responses from across the UK, conducted between 12-29 September 2025. 12% ran large businesses (250+ people), 21% medium (50-249), 27% small (10-49 people), 28% micro (2-9 people) and 12% sole trader and self-employed business entities (0-1 people).
How optimistic are you about both the wider UK economy and also your organisation over the next 12 months?
Comparing the next 12 months with the last 12 months, what do you believe the outlook for your organisation will be in terms of:
What are the biggest factors driving your outlook for costs over the year ahead?
