IoD Wales policy update, with Marc Strathie

The State of the Nation Wales provides a health check across many aspects of the Welsh economy. We will be producing our next iteration later this year and look forward to hearing from you in relation to new themes.

Upon publication of our State of the Nation, we circulated the report to a number of key stakeholders to help inform current policy thinking and present up to date insights from our members across Wales.

Over the last year we have also established a Wales Policy Committee which meets on a quarterly basis to discuss the key topics facing the economy and policy interventions required. Over the course of this year, I will be working closely with the Committee to develop our Manifesto asks for the future Welsh Government in 2026.

The opening few months of 2025 have been a busy time for us and our policy ambitions as we gear up towards 2026 Elections. We have been working hard to engage with our members across Wales to understand the key issues facing you as we prepare our Manifesto for 2026. In my first blog post of the year, I thought it would be useful to look at the state of play as we are now officially one year out from elections.

The 2026 Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election, scheduled for 7 May 2026, is shaping up to be one of the most transformative in Wales’ political history.  The upcoming election will be the first under a new electoral system and expanded Senedd structure:

• Number of Members: The Senedd will increase from 60 to 96 Members of the Senedd (MSs).
• Constituencies: Wales will be divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing 6 MSs using a closed party list system.
• Voting System: Voters will cast one vote for a party, not individual candidates. Seats will be allocated using the D’Hondt method, a form of proportional representation.
• Voting Age: The voting age remains 16 and over, continuing the inclusive approach from the previous election.

Recent polling has made for interesting reading across Wales. A recent YouGov poll for ITV Cymru and Cardiff University suggests a dramatic shift in the political landscape. Below is a summary of some recent polling and how things currently look:

Plaid Cymru: Projected to win 35 seats, potentially becoming the largest party. Their pro-independence stance and criticism of UK Labour have resonated with many voters.

Reform UK: Surging in popularity, projected to win 30 seats. Nigel Farage has declared the party is aiming to be the biggest in Wales.

Welsh Labour: Facing a historic low, projected to win just 19 seats — their worst result since devolution began.

Welsh Conservatives: Expected to fall to 9 seats, down from their previous position as the main opposition.

Liberal Democrats: Polling at around 7%, unlikely to gain significant ground.

There is plenty of campaigning to be done between now and May 2026, but it promises to be an interesting year ahead. The relationship between Cardiff Bay and Westminster may well alter as we know it, but a year is a long time in politics and we can expect plenty of twists and turns ahead of 2026…