IoD 46% of business leaders expect inflation to be above target for at least another two years

Commenting on today’s data from the Office of National Statistics that showed CPI inflation rose from 9% to 9.1% in May, Kitty Ussher, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, commented:

“This is a story that has little changed since April, with the recent rise in household energy and transport prices explaining most of the high rate of inflation. The 0.1 percentage point increase in May is due primarily to the mathematical effect of having had a fall in food prices this time last year.

“Although there will be some reassurance that the rate of increase has temporarily steadied following last month’s rise, we will have a long wait before it gets anywhere near back to the Bank of England’s 2% target. Our own surveys of IoD members show almost half of business leaders (46%) think inflation will still be above the Bank of England’s target two years from now.

“Policymakers would be well advised to start talking publicly about when inflation might be expected to peak and start falling back, to help expectations re-anchor at a lower level.”

Full survey results

598 responses, conducted between 13th-27th May 2022

At what point, if at all, do you next expect the annual rate of inflation to be near the Bank of England’s 2% target?

Summer 2022
2.34%
Autumn 2022
1.34%
Winter 2022
2.01%
Spring 2023
2.84%
Summer 2023
5.35%
Autumn 2023
8.53%
Winter 2023
6.02%
Spring 2024
17.22%
Later than Spring 2024
41.47%
Never
4.35%
Don’t know
8.53%
Later than Spring 2024 + Never
45.82%

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