IoD press release  UK growth remains resilient as autumn headwinds build

“July’s GDP data continue this year’s pattern of resilient growth, with particularly strength in computer programming, where the ONS points to activity related to AI and cloud computing. However, while July’s data are encouraging, the challenge now is whether that resilience can withstand a much tougher autumn. As the Iran conflict intensifies, oil is back above $100 a barrel, gas prices are at their highest since late 2022, and financial conditions have tightened markedly. These developments will raise inflation, squeeze household incomes and business margins, and weigh on spending and growth.

“As businesses and households brace for a difficult winter, the government risks adding to the very cost pressures it says it wants to relieve. On Monday, the Chancellor said he wanted to ‘draw the line’ under rising business costs. Yet just days later, mayoralities have been granted new powers to levy tourist taxes. The forthcoming Budget must bring much-needed coherence to economic policy if government is serious about rebuilding chronically low business confidence and getting firms investing.”