IoD press release Disappointing growth leaves door open to stagflation concerns

Commenting on ONS data that showed GDP rose by 0.1% in November 2024, following a decline in GDP of 0.1% in October, Anna Leach, Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, said:

“The UK returned to meagre growth in November, driven by accommodation and food, ICT and wholesale trade. While welcome, this is a slower pace than expected: in the second half of 2024, four out of five months have seen growth come in below expectations. November coincided with a new post-Covid low for the IoD’s Economic Confidence Index as business leaders were left reeling from a worse-than-expected Budget for business. The economy now seems likely to have ground to a halt over the second half of 2024.

“It is more urgent than ever for government policy to be focussed on driving up growth. The government’s negative rhetoric snuffed out confidence and growth in the second half of 2024: we now need relentlessly positive pro-growth messaging. This then needs to be accompanied by meaningful, measurable progress in the delivery of this year’s policy ambitions. Pro-growth regulation, the Chancellor’s expected speech at the end of the month, Industrial Strategy and tax simplification announcements are important opportunities this spring for the government to demonstrate its commitment to driving up investment and growth. Planning reform also presents a huge opportunity to unblock growth.”

Full results

601 responses from across the UK, conducted between 15-27 November 2024. 14% ran large businesses (250+ people), 20% medium (50-249), 26% small (10-49 people), 30% micro (2-9 people) and 11% sole trader and self-employed business entities (0-1 people).

How optimistic are you about both the wider UK economy and also your organisation over the next 12 months?

Very optimistic
Quite optimistic
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic
Quite pessimistic
Very pessimistic
Don't know
Wider UK economy
1.2%
8.3%
15.3%
47.1%
27.8%
0.3%
Your (primary) organisation
3.7%
25.6%
33.8%
28.5%
8.2%
0.3%

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